![]() In affected areas, conflict continues to disrupt livelihood activities, while also limiting population movement and trade flows, and at times resulting in the destruction of infrastructure. Sporadic conflict in Oromia, concentrated in East and West Guji, West Wollega, Bale, and West Shewa zones, remains high, despite having declined slightly since December 2021. However, clashes between government-aligned forces and the Tigrayan forces occurred along the borders of Amhara and Afar prior to the humanitarian cease fire, in March. While livestock prices are expected to remain near or somewhat above average due to inflationary market pressures, food prices will continue to increase, driving declining terms of trade.Ĭonflict : The security situation in Tigray remains relatively calm, with few conflict incidents occurring in March. ![]() While the government is likely to continue subsidizing many imported staple foods and fuel, this is not expected to stabilize prices. According to the Central Statistical Agency (CSA), annual inflation in March was 34.9 percent, 14.3 points percentage higher than in March 2021. Furthermore, the poor belg rainfall has reduced land preparation and planting of long maturing meher crops.įood prices, notably for staple food and cooking oil, have significantly increased, associated with poor macroeconomic conditions and the war in Ukraine. As a result, 2022 belg production is likely to be delayed by at least a month and significantly below average, driving an atypically long lean season in belg-dependent areas. According to regional governments, as of April, the area planted is around 60 percent below average across belg areas of Sidama, SNNP, and Amhara regions. ![]() Forecast models and research conducted by FEWS NET science partners also indicate an increased likelihood of a below-average October to December deyr/hageya season, which would constitute an unprecedented fifth consecutive below-average season.įebruary to May belg rainfall started over a month late and has been significantly below-average, negatively affecting land preparation and planting activities. If humanitarian assistance is limited and the gu/genna season fails, more extreme outcomes are possible. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are widespread, with some populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). With limited access to livestock for sale, pastoralists across these areas face extreme constraints in purchasing sufficient food, leading to wide consumption gaps. According to regional and zonal governments in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, over 2.2 million livestock died between October and mid-April. Pasture and water availability are minimal, and regional government reports suggest increasing livestock deaths, low livestock milk production, and decreasing livestock values in markets. Very limited rainfall and hot temperatures mark the ongoing March to May gu/genna season in southern and southeastern areas. In bordering areas of Amhara and Afar, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist as households have minimal access to food and income, notably among displaced populations. It is possible outcomes are worse, but given access constraints, information is insufficient to confirm or deny this. At a minimum, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes exist in Tigray, with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Available information from key informants suggests some households are engaging in severe coping strategies, such as begging and migrating in search of food, notably to Amhara. ![]() In Tigray, although some improvement in humanitarian access has led to around 3,400 MT of assistance entering Tigray in April, millions of households still face extreme difficulty accessing sufficient food. ![]()
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